The Cleveland Browns are in New England to battle the Patriots in Week 10 Last week’s prop picks: 1-4. Overall: 16-19, -1.69 units See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below
Well, that was rough. All those points in a Cleveland 41-16 drubbing over the Bengals, and all we could muster was a single win in our five prop picks.
Bouncing back is our thing, however, and we’ve got the Browns on tap again, this time on the road against an upstart Patriots’ team that has won three straight.
Injuries will play a factor in this one, including Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt unavailable for the run-happy Browns. The uncertainty is reflected in a thinner-than-usual list of player prop bets.
As always, we’ve got you set with an NFL game preview.
For now, let’s dive into our favorite player prop bets available.
Browns vs Patriots Player Props Passer Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs Baker Mayfield (CLE) 19.5 (Ov -120 / Un -100) 229.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +115 / Un -150) Mac Jones (NE) 21.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100) 243.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125) Rusher Rushing Yards Rush + Rec Yards Longest Rush D’Ernest Johnson (CLE) 66.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF OFF Receiver Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception Austin Hooper (CLE) 2.5 (Ov +140 / Un -185) 21.5 (Ov -120 / Un -115) 13.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) Hunter Henry (NE) 2.5 (Ov -150 / Un +115) 29.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) Jakobi Myers (NE) OFF 48.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF Jarvis Landry (CLE) OFF 52.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) 19.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) Nelson Agholor (NE) OFF 38.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF
Odds taken Nov 13 from DraftKings
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The rookie pivot out of Alabama has looked good in commanding Bill Belichick’s offense, since it’s reverted back to more of the young Tom Brady-style offenses that were a Patriots’ trademark. Until, you know, they realized Brady was a superstar.
Jones isn’t there yet, but he’s definitely got the Young Brady part down. As the Patriots have reeled off four wins in their last five games, Jones has hit the 35 pass attempt mark just twice. When New England started the year 1-3, he only went one game sub-35 attempts.
Mac Jones vs Baker Mayfield 2021:—————————————-Mac Jones- ✅Pass Yards: 2,135 ✅Comp%: 68 ✅QBR: 50 ✅TD:10 ✅INT: 7❌
Baker Mayfield- ❌Pass Yards: 1,917 ❌Comp%: 66 ❌QBR: 44 ❌TD: 8 ❌INT: 3 ✅You Tell Me Who The Better QB is… pic.twitter.com/x8FEVunMVc
— Devon NE (5-4) (@stanton_rbw) November 13, 2021
The passing yards reflect that: Jones has only crossed that 243.5 total once during this impressive streak — when he went for 307 in a demolition of the New York Jets.
On the year, Jones has thrown for 2,135 yards (237.2 yards per game), with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
— New England PatriotsNation™ (@PatsNationTM) November 7, 2021
The Browns’ defense ranks ninth in the NFL in passing yards per game at 224.9 a contest, though their last two opponents have gone over that total.
Still, the Patriots have been committed to pounding the rock, no matter who’s in the backfield. They’ve rushed 39 times in each of their last two contests, and are eighth in the NFL in total rushes.
Jones UNDER 243.5 passing yards (1.25 units to win 1.34 units) Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code Gets You $1,001 FREE Bet for This WeekRead More D’Ernest Johnson Rush Yards
The release of Odell Beckham Jr solidified what we already needed to know about the Browns: they’ll pass just enough to get by. The Browns are leading the NFL in rushing at over 160.2 yards per game. Only the Baltimore Ravens are within that range, with 29 teams under the 140-yard mark.
The Browns have already shown they are not just getting by with the talent of their running backs — though they tandem of Chubb and Hunt are extremely talented. Both are out in Week 10, with Chubb entering COVID protocols and Hunt still nursing a calf injury. The only healthy back on the roster is D’Ernest Johsnon.
D’Ernest Johnson had a breakout performance in primetime, but how does he spend his time off the field?
Watch regional Emmy Award winning series ‘Building The Browns’ 11/12 on YouTube. pic.twitter.com/dDavD6WRT7
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 10, 2021
He’s already had to step into the lead-back role and flourished in his moment, running for 146 yards and a score in a win over Denver in Week 7.
The Patriots’ defense is no slouch: they’re ninth in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game. Last time out, they held the Panthers to 78 total rushing yards. New England isn’t a steel curtain though: in Week 8 against the Chargers, Justin Jackson was able to run for 79 yards, while, Austin Ekeler just came up short at 64.
D’Ernest Johnson cuts it back for 6️⃣! #Browns
— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2021
In fact, teams with good ground games have been able to surpass that total: Zeke Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette are the other backs that have found success against the Pats this year.
Jones OVER 66.5 rushing yards (1.25 units to win 1.34 units) Browns vs Patriots Scoring Props Player First Touchdown Scorer Anytime Touchdown Scorer D’Ernest Johnson (CLE) +650 -110 Branden Bolden (NE) +750 +105 Damien Harris (NE) +750 +105 Nelson Agholor (NE) +1200 +190 Jakobi Myers (NE) +1200 +190 Jarvis Landry (CLE) +1200 +180 Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) +1200 +180 JJ Taylor (NE) +1400 +200 Hunter Henry (NE) +1400 +225 Kendrick Bourne (NE) +1600 +250 Austin Hooper (CLE) +1600 +260 Who Scores?
I’ve been getting burned chasing value where sometimes the obvious choices should be taken into account.
Damien Harris has scored at least one touchdown in each of his past five games, while the Browns have allowed rushing TD’s in back-to-back games, and eight total rushing scores on the year.
— NFL (@NFL) November 7, 2021
There is one value pick worth considering, and it was a player who cost us an L a week ago. With OBJ out of Cleveland, the clear top receiving option is Jarvis Landry. Even in a win against the Bengals last week where the Browns hung 41 over Cincy, Landry had just three catches for 11 yards.
He’s been productive on the road, however, as he’s scored a TD in five of his last seven road appearances. But buyer beware: those two non-TD games have happened this year.
Bet $1, Win $100 if Either Team Scores
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